Friday, 14 July 2017

Wimbledon 2017 : Semi final predictions


While Roger Federer and Marin Cilic were among the favourites from the very beginning, not many would have put their money on Sam Querrey and Tomas Berdych to make it to the last 4 of Wimbledon. But here we are, destined either to witness a new champion, or Federer's 8th Wimbledon trophy. So let's have a look at each of the semi finals and try and predict what we might have on our hands today.







[24] SAM QUERREY VS [7] MARIN CILIC

HEAD TO HEAD : 0-4
LAST MEETING : MARIN CILIC 7-6(2), 7-6(3) (WASHINGTON 2015, RD. OF 16)

Sam Querrey has had a fairy tale run this year, and as I mentioned before, nobody would have expected him to make it to the last 4. To his credit, he has knocked out big names such as Tsonga, Kevin Anderson and the reigning world number 1, Andy Murray. He has been excellent with his serves, leading the pack with 126 aces in this tournament. He has won 84% of first serve points and it goes to show that big servers are rewarded at the All England club. Cilic has been equally destructive with his serve, blasting 105 aces and winning 83% of his first serve points. Cilic, though has had a more comfortable path to the semis, playing just 169 games and 3 tie-breaks in 5 matches, while Querrey has played 217 games and 5 tie breaks. I feel the winner of this match will depend on who defends his second serve better, unless one of them plays the game of his life, and takes the match in 3 sets. I don't suppose that will happen though, so I pick Cilic to edge Querrey out in 4 closely fought sets.

PREDICTION : MARIN CILIC 6-3, 6-7(6), 6-3, 7-5



[11] TOMAS BERDYCH VS [3] ROGER FEDERER

HEAD TO HEAD : 6-18
LAST MEETING : MARIN CILIC 6-2, 3-6, 7-6(6) (MIAMI MASTERS 2017, QF)

Tomas Berdcyh hasn't had the best year so far in 2017, as he dropped out of the top 10 for the first time in more than 6 years. In Wimbledon this year though, he has served exceedingly well, winning 85% of his first serve points. In comparison, Federer is just marginally behind, with 82%. But Federer clearly has the edge when it comes to defending his second serve. While Berdych has been winning below 60% of his second serve points, Federer is way ahead at a ridiculous 68%. If we look at their history, Federer has dominated Berdych with 18 wins over him out of 24 matches, but has faced defeat in big matches, including one in the quarter finals of Wimbledon 2010, where Berdych beat him and eventually made it to the finals. Interestingly though, Berdych's last victory over Federer had been way back in the semi finals of Dubai in 2013, after which, he has taken just 2 sets out of 18 from the Swiss in the 7 consecutive defeats which followed. If form is anything to go by, Federer is clearly the favourite, and is yet to drop a set in this tournament. After Djokovic and Murray's exit, people say that it's Federer's tournament to lose, but two big hurdles are still to be overcome, and none are pushovers. This one though, should be the more comfortable of the two, where I see him knock Berdych out with ease, barring maybe a set, in which the Czech will put some fireworks on display.

PREDICTION : ROGER FEDERER 7-6(4), 3-6, 6-3, 6-4




So there we have it then. If my predictions are right, we will have

[7] MARIN CILIC VS [3] ROGER FEDERER 


Let me know if you agree with my predictions. Have a great day!

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